000
FXUS62 KJAX 210052 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
850 PM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...

.UPDATE...
DIGGING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS SWINGING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GOMEX AND IS ON TRACK TO KICK
OFF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCTD THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LEAD TO EARLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOWARD MORNING WILL SEND TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND
TOWARD SUNRISE WITH SOME ISOLD SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY BY MORNING. ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD QUICKLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
FILLING IN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MAX TEMPS STILL A BIT TRICKY BUT
EXPECT ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUSH THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER TO MID 70S BEFORE RAIN TEMPERS THEM A BIT BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY JET WILL INCREASE SOUTH WINDS TO 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS JUST AHEAD
OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. A FEW STRONG/ISOLD SVR TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JAX
TO GNV.

.AVIATION...LOOKS TO BE VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THROUGH 06Z.
THEREAFTER...APPROACHING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALLOW CIGS IN ADVANCE TO LOWER TO 5K FEET BY 12Z. A RAPID
LOWERING SHOULD ENSUE THROUGH 16Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES AND THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR AT GNV AND VQQ. SHOULD EARLY
INDICATIONS CONTINUE...THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE MAY NEED TO INCLUDE IFR
FOR ALL SITES. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING LINE OF
STORMS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET.

.MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. BASED ON
INPUT FROM LATEST SREF GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE GA PORTION
IN THE SCA ALTHOUGH IT WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TIME FROM THE
FLORIDA PORTION. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  70  47  64 /  10  70  30  20
SSI  57  68  51  64 /  10  80  40  10
JAX  56  75  49  67 /  10  80  30  20
SGJ  57  75  53  65 /  10  80  40  10
GNV  53  73  48  68 /  10  80  30  10
OCF  53  75  49  71 /  10  80  30  10

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

HESS/DEESE/PRESNALL