000
FXUS62 KJAX 211809
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 PM EDT SUN MAR 21 2010

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE LOOPS GIVE A GOOD VIEW OF THE VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER AR/LA AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMANATES FROM THE DEEP LOW SOUTHWARD OVER ALABAMA
INTO THE GULF. WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS A BAND OF TSTMS THAT
HAVE MOVED ACRS THE SE PORTION WITH MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES S OF
OCF...PALATKA TO PALM COAST. THESE STORMS ARE NOW MOVING OFFSHORE
INTO THE SRN COASTAL WATERS. PREVIOUS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEHAVED MORE LIKE WARM FRONTAL RAINS AND
INDEED THE 60 DEG DEW POINT LINE HAS PUSHED N OF THE GA/FL BORDER.
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE
EXITING BAND OF RAIN LEAVING ONLY A SLGT CHANCE NEAR THE COAST
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE MID/UPR
LOW WILL BRING SLGT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS.

STRONG SE TO SLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE BEGINNING TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC BEHIND THE RAINS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FROM ALMA
TO WAYCROSS AND GAINESVILLE. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
BREEZY SWLY WINDS ON MONDAY AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC RGN LATE TUESDAY.

OFF AND ON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY THEN BY TUE-WED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGHS ON MON WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S...BUT A
WARMUP COMMENCES AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT A FEW
INLAND LOCALES TO REPORT 80 DEG BY WED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA PROVIDING A WARM SLY FLOW
ON THURSDAY AND TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
DISTURBANCE DRAGGING A FRONT THRU ON FRI FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST PROVIDING BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ON
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE STILL HAMMERING OUT THE EXACT SCENARIO AND
WILL NOT ADJUST GRIDS WITH THIS PKG. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR
THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE AT EAST
COAST TAF SITES THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE RA
SHIELD THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS. EXPECT LOWEST
CIGS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR BEHIND THE RAIN SHIELD AS WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
EXPECTING LOW END MVFR TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING HOURS WITH -DZ
LIKELY. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON IFR POTENTIAL BUT THIS REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE MVFR CIGS WILL RE-
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PACKAGE.

.MARINE...ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN DECIDEDLY
LESS HOSTILE THAN MODELS HAD EARLIER PROJECTED. STILL LOOKING AT
NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND WITH A
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...THESE SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...HAVE HAD TO BACK OFF
FURTHER WITH ONSET TIME OF SCA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GA PORTION
TONIGHT. TRICKY FORECAST BEYOND 18 HOURS AS MODELS SHOW WINDS
DECREASING AFTER 12Z MON FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN MON EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
LOWER WITH PROJECTED WIND SPEEDS AND WILL KEEP BELOW SCA FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WORKING IN FOR TUE AFTERNOON MAY REQUIRE
THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS BUT
TOO CLOSE A CALL FOR NOW.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  46  64  43  70 /  20  10  10   0
SSI  50  64  46  65 /  20  10  10   0
JAX  49  66  44  70 /  20  10  10   0
SGJ  52  66  48  67 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  47  66  44  71 /  20  10  10   0
OCF  48  69  45  72 /  20  10  10   0

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

TRABERT/DEESE